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The Impact of China-Japan Tensions on the Foreign Trade Environment
China-Japan tensions will disrupt the foreign trade environment through supply chain disruptions, bilateral trade downturns, regional trade rule conflicts, and rising logistics costs. These tensions not only directly hit relevant industries in both countries but also trigger ripple effects across regional and global foreign trade markets via industrial chain transmission. Specific impacts are as follows:
1. Core Industrial Chain Disruptions, Global Manufacturing at Risk
China and Japan are deeply intertwined in high-end manufacturing. Japan accounts for 42% of China’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and high-end medical devices, while Japanese automakers rely heavily on China for rare earth supplies. Escalating tensions will directly cut off the flow of such core components and key materials, leading to large-scale shutdowns of automotive and electronics factories in both countries. This disruption will also spread outward, causing a surge in global prices of electronic products dependent on the China-Japan industrial chain and even slowing the pace of global technological industry upgrading.
2. Bilateral Trade Downturn, Key Industries Under Pressure
In H1 2025, Japan’s exports to China accounted for 19.3% of its total exports, with imports from China reaching 25.7%—making China Japan’s largest trading partner. Tensions may prompt both sides to impose non-tariff barriers, such as China tightening quarantine standards for Japanese food and Japan restricting access to Chinese mechanical equipment. This will directly impact Japan’s advantageous export industries (e.g., automobiles, chemicals) and China’s textile sector. Meanwhile, a trade trust crisis will lead to delayed orders and contract compensation, forcing many enterprises to divert orders to avoid risks, further reducing bilateral trade volume.
3. Rising Logistics and Trade Costs, Eroding Corporate Profits
Heightened tensions have already caused a 10%-20% increase in shipping insurance premiums for China-Japan routes. Increased customs inspections and longer review cycles have disrupted the transportation of time-sensitive goods like fresh produce and electronic components. Many enterprises have shifted to transshipping goods via Southeast Asia, which adds 2-3 days to delivery times and increases costs by $15-$30 per ton. Over the long term, this will continuously squeeze corporate profit margins.
4. Regional Trade Rule Conflicts, Hampering Cooperation
Amid tensions, Japan may align its trade rules (e.g., environmental protection, intellectual property) with the U.S. to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance, conflicting with China-led regional trade frameworks. This increases the cost of rule adaptation for Sino-Japanese corporate cooperation. Additionally, RCEP-driven collaboration between the two countries in areas like carbon neutrality and the silver economy may stall—depriving Japanese enterprises of market returns from their technological advantages and Chinese enterprises of regional cooperation dividends, undermining the coordinated development of Asia-Pacific trade.
5. Global Trade Turmoil, Impacting Multiple Economies
As two of the world’s top three economies, China and Japan conduct over $300 billion in bilateral trade annually. Their tensions will affect economies closely linked to both, such as the U.S. (dependent on end products from the China-Japan industrial chain), South Korea (with overlapping electronic industries), and Malaysia (relying on China-Japan for raw material exports). Furthermore, East Asian routes carry over 30% of global maritime trade; if tensions disrupt key waterways like the Miyako Strait, global trade volume could plummet, severely damaging the economies of export-dependent developing countries. |
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